V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
100.52%
decreased by 9.77%
1 Week
104.55%
decreased by 5.74%
1 Month
113.77%
increased by 3.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 19.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3561 | 19.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7233 | 108.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3196 | -15.96*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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