V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
80.22%
decreased by 4.93%
1 Week
87.30%
increased by 2.15%
1 Month
101.42%
increased by 16.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 4.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1936 | 6.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7119 | 23.11*** |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1936 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7119 | 23.11*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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