ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
79.33%
increased by 3.05%
1 Week
86.35%
increased by 10.07%
1 Month
100.10%
increased by 23.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 74% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 32.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4537 | 32.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5447 | 69.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1933 | -8.65*** |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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