V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
49.08%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
53.17%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
58.91%
increased by 8.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8605 | 5.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2326 | 7.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5988 | 14.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.3603 | 2.11** |
| γ2 | -0.4189 | -1.62 |
| γ3 | -0.0440 | -0.25 |
| γ4 | 0.3232 | 1.98** |
| γ5 | -0.5048 | -3.09*** |
| γ6 | 0.5992 | 3.52*** |
| γ7 | -0.7961 | -2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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