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V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

84.36%

increased by 24.06%

1 Week

79.61%

increased by 19.31%

1 Month

71.70%

increased by 11.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8554
5.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2341
7.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5972
14.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.3566
2.05**
γ2-0.4076
-1.55
γ3-0.0617
-0.35
γ40.3429
2.08**
γ5-0.5197
-3.13***
γ60.6019
3.47***
γ7-0.7629
-2.88***

Persistence:

0.831

Half-life:

4 days