ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
84.36%
increased by 24.06%
1 Week
79.61%
increased by 19.31%
1 Month
71.70%
increased by 11.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8554 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2341 | 7.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5972 | 14.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.3566 | 2.05** |
| γ2 | -0.4076 | -1.55 |
| γ3 | -0.0617 | -0.35 |
| γ4 | 0.3429 | 2.08** |
| γ5 | -0.5197 | -3.13*** |
| γ6 | 0.6019 | 3.47*** |
| γ7 | -0.7629 | -2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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