V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
40.80%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
44.03%
increased by 1.97%
1 Month
48.54%
increased by 6.48%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7585 | 4.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.2320 | 7.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5972 | 14.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2838 | 1.50 |
| γ2 | -0.3111 | -1.14 |
| γ3 | -0.0861 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | 0.3312 | 2.11** |
| γ5 | -0.4958 | -3.17*** |
| γ6 | 0.5963 | 3.72*** |
| γ7 | -0.8725 | -3.63*** |
0.829
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7585 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2320 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5972 | 14.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2838 | 1.50 |
| γ2 | -0.3111 | -1.14 |
| γ3 | -0.0861 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | 0.3312 | 2.11** |
| γ5 | -0.4958 | -3.17*** |
| γ6 | 0.5963 | 3.72*** |
| γ7 | -0.8725 | -3.63*** |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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