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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

40.80%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

44.03%

increased by 1.97%

1 Month

48.54%

increased by 6.48%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7585
4.04***
αARCH0.2320
7.95***
βGARCH0.5972
14.33***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.2838
1.50
γ2-0.3111
-1.14
γ3-0.0861
-0.51
γ40.3312
2.11**
γ5-0.4958
-3.17***
γ60.5963
3.72***
γ7-0.8725
-3.63***

0.829

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7585
4.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2320
7.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5972
14.33***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.2838
1.50
γ2-0.3111
-1.14
γ3-0.0861
-0.51
γ40.3312
2.11**
γ5-0.4958
-3.17***
γ60.5963
3.72***
γ7-0.8725
-3.63***

Persistence:

0.829

Half-life:

4 days