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V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

87.96%

increased by 1.86%

1 Week

96.84%

increased by 10.74%

1 Month

112.20%

increased by 26.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.45) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.5315
13.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1931
36.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6867
147.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-4.4519
-25.81***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days