ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
87.96%
increased by 1.86%
1 Week
96.84%
increased by 10.74%
1 Month
112.20%
increased by 26.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.45) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5315 | 13.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1931 | 36.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6867 | 147.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -4.4519 | -25.81*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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