ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
79.61%
1 Week
88.01%
1 Month
108.25%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5269 | 12.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1557 | 30.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7944 | 121.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8253 | -25.79*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8417 | 23.65*** |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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