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V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

79.61%

decreased by 4.31%

1 Week

88.01%

increased by 4.09%

1 Month

108.25%

increased by 24.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5269
12.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1557
30.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7944
121.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.8253
-25.79***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8417
23.65***

Persistence:

0.911

Half-life:

7 days