V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
73.54%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Week
82.82%
increased by 7.14%
1 Month
100.71%
increased by 25.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.43 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 55.2873 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.2015 | 5.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9065 | 27.58*** |
| νDF | 5.4330 | 1.99** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 55.2873 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2015 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9065 | 27.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4330 | 1.99** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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