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V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

70.05%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

80.47%

increased by 9.45%

1 Month

99.93%

increased by 28.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

55.3602
11.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2020
20.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9046
108.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4283
7.92***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days