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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

69.88%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

80.18%

increased by 9.86%

1 Month

98.99%

increased by 28.67%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst53.1952
3.08***
αARCH0.1976
5.26***
βGARCH0.8997
26.34***
νDF5.1844
2.12**

0.900

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

53.1952
3.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1976
5.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8997
26.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1844
2.12**

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days