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V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

93.10%

decreased by 12.86%

1 Week

97.95%

decreased by 8.01%

1 Month

108.02%

increased by 2.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

55.6124
11.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2022
20.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9048
108.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4340
7.91***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days