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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

71.16%

decreased by 6.97%

1 Week

81.33%

increased by 3.20%

1 Month

99.71%

increased by 21.58%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 5.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst53.1971
3.13***
αARCH0.1977
5.21***
βGARCH0.8970
26.04***
νDF5.1988
2.09**

0.897

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

53.1971
3.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1977
5.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8970
26.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1988
2.09**

Persistence:

0.897

Half-life:

6 days