Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

73.54%

decreased by 2.14%

1 Week

82.82%

increased by 7.14%

1 Month

100.71%

increased by 25.03%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.43 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst55.2873
2.95***
αARCH0.2015
5.28***
βGARCH0.9065
27.58***
νDF5.4330
1.99**

0.907

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

55.2873
2.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2015
5.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9065
27.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4330
1.99**

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days