V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
71.16%
decreased by 6.97%
1 Week
81.33%
increased by 3.20%
1 Month
99.71%
increased by 21.58%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 5.20 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 53.1971 | 3.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.1977 | 5.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8970 | 26.04*** |
| νDF | 5.1988 | 2.09** |
0.897
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.1971 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1977 | 5.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8970 | 26.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1988 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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