V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
70.05%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
80.47%
increased by 9.45%
1 Month
99.93%
increased by 28.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 55.3602 | 11.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2020 | 20.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9046 | 108.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4283 | 7.92*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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