ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
69.88%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
80.18%
increased by 9.86%
1 Month
98.99%
increased by 28.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.18 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 53.1952 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.1976 | 5.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8997 | 26.34*** |
| νDF | 5.1844 | 2.12** |
0.900
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.1952 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1976 | 5.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 26.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1844 | 2.12** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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