S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
46.24%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
46.15%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
45.79%
decreased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 48% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0621 | 24.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 16.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 434.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0320 | 4.68*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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