V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
14.25%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
14.78%
increased by 1.52%
1 Month
16.47%
increased by 3.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6362 | 10.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.1006 | 10.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8757 | 87.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -4.76*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6362 | 10.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1006 | 10.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8757 | 87.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -4.76*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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