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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.94%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

15.43%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

16.98%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6323
10.26***
αARCH0.1006
10.87***
βGARCH0.8753
87.06***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-4.84***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6323
10.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1006
10.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8753
87.06***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-4.84***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days