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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

14.25%

increased by 0.99%

1 Week

14.78%

increased by 1.52%

1 Month

16.47%

increased by 3.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6362
10.22***
αARCH0.1006
10.89***
βGARCH0.8757
87.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-4.76***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6362
10.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1006
10.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8757
87.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-4.76***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days