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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.85%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

16.17%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

17.17%

increased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7434
6.66***
αARCH0.1025
10.47***
βGARCH0.8619
74.32***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0226
2.49**
γ2-0.0296
-2.11**
γ3-0.0027
-0.26
γ40.0270
2.85***
γ5-0.0397
-3.21***

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7434
6.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1025
10.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8619
74.32***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0226
2.49**
γ2-0.0296
-2.11**
γ3-0.0027
-0.26
γ40.0270
2.85***
γ5-0.0397
-3.21***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days