V-Lab
Romanian Leu Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.90%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.93%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
5.04%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9458 | 7.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0304 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9618 | 165.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0196 | -3.85*** |
| γ2 | 0.0297 | 3.86*** |
| γ3 | -0.0115 | -2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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