V-Lab
Romanian Leu Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.61%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.64%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.78%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2002 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9479 | 7.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9618 | 166.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0194 | -3.82*** |
| γ2 | 0.0294 | 3.82*** |
| γ3 | -0.0113 | -2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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