V-Lab
British Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
4.50%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.54%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.69%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~122 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0580 | 8.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 6.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9639 | 186.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.83 |
0.994
Persistence122d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0580 | 8.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 6.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9639 | 186.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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