British Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
4.27%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.31%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
4.47%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~125 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0706 | 8.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 6.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9640 | 187.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.95 |
0.994
Persistence125d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0706 | 8.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9640 | 187.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.95 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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