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V-Lab

British Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

4.27%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

4.31%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

4.47%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of British Pound S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~125 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0706
8.53***
αARCH0.0305
6.30***
βGARCH0.9640
187.95***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.95

0.994

Persistence

125d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0706
8.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0305
6.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9640
187.95***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.95

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

125 days