V-Lab
Euro Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.13%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.16%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.28%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2051 | 9.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0269 | 8.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9683 | 254.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 2.42** |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2051 | 9.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0269 | 8.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9683 | 254.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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