V-Lab
Euro APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.46%
1 Week
4.49%
1 Month
4.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 316 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 2.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0287 | 7.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9713 | 296.50*** |
| γleverage | 0.0638 | 1.19 |
| δpower | 1.7548 | 8.67*** |
0.998
Persistence316d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0287 | 7.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9713 | 296.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0638 | 1.19 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7548 | 8.67*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
316 days
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