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V-Lab
V-Lab

Euro APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

4.46%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

4.49%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.61%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Euro APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 316 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~316 daysδ = 1.75 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0009
2.77***
αARCH0.0287
7.04***
βGARCH0.9713
296.50***
γleverage0.0638
1.19
δpower1.7548
8.67***

0.998

Persistence

316d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0009
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0287
7.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9713
296.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0638
1.19
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7548
8.67***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

316 days