V-Lab
Croatian Kuna APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
4.04%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.06%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.13%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 509 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 60% more than negative returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~509 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 60% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.16** |
| αARCH | 0.0227 | 6.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9756 | 332.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.1174 | -2.09** |
| δpower | 2.0038 | 9.18*** |
0.999
Persistence509d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0227 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9756 | 332.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1174 | -2.09** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0038 | 9.18*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
509 days
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