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V-Lab
V-Lab

Croatian Kuna APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

4.04%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

4.06%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

4.13%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Croatian Kuna APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 509 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 60% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~509 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 60% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0004
2.16**
αARCH0.0227
6.30***
βGARCH0.9756
332.08***
γleverage-0.1174
-2.09**
δpower2.0038
9.18***

0.999

Persistence

509d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0004
2.16**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0227
6.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9756
332.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1174
-2.09**
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0038
9.18***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

509 days