Croatian Kuna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.65%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
4.66%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.72%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 520 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~520 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.16** |
| αARCH | 0.0284 | 4.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9757 | 332.76*** |
| γleverage | -0.0107 | -1.21 |
0.999
Persistence520d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0284 | 4.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9757 | 332.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0107 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
520 days
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