V-Lab
Croatian Kuna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
4.60%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
4.62%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.68%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 501 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 60% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 8.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0283 | 18.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9756 | 1,325.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0106 | -4.83*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
501 days
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