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V-Lab

Croatian Kuna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.65%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

4.66%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.72%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Croatian Kuna GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 520 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~520 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0004
2.16**
αARCH0.0284
4.54***
βGARCH0.9757
332.76***
γleverage-0.0107
-1.21

0.999

Persistence

520d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0004
2.16**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0284
4.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9757
332.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0107
-1.21

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

520 days