Croatian Kuna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4.43%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.45%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
4.51%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 528 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~528 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.0283 | 4.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9757 | 333.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.0106 | -1.20 |
0.999
Persistence528d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0283 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9757 | 333.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0106 | -1.20 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
528 days
Other Croatian Kuna Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies