V-Lab
Croatian Kuna GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.05%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
4.07%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.14%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 524 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~524 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0004 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.0284 | 4.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9756 | 332.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.0107 | -1.21 |
0.999
Persistence524d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0284 | 4.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9756 | 332.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0107 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
524 days
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