V-Lab
Croatian Kuna GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
5.30%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
5.31%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
5.39%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 459 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3838 | 9.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0197 | 75.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9985 | 7,031.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7870 | 165.01*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
459 days
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