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Croatian Kuna GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.99%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

5.01%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

5.09%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Croatian Kuna GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 472 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~472 daysv = 2.79 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3841
2.39**
αARCH0.0197
19.06***
βGARCH0.9985
1,835.54***
νDF2.7862
43.03***

0.999

Persistence

472d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3841
2.39**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0197
19.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9985
1,835.54***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7862
43.03***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

472 days