V-Lab
Croatian Kuna AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
5.90%
increased by 1.72%
1 Week
5.90%
increased by 1.72%
1 Month
5.93%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 552 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~552 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 0.83 |
| αARCH | 0.0230 | 8.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9758 | 340.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0870 | -1.84* |
0.999
Persistence552d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 0.83 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0230 | 8.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9758 | 340.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0870 | -1.84* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
552 days
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