V-Lab
United States Dollar Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
9.59%
increased by 4.12%
1 Week
9.55%
increased by 4.08%
1 Month
9.42%
increased by 3.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0034 | 7.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0613 | 18.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9254 | 326.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.0133 | 0.46 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0034 | 7.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0613 | 18.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9254 | 326.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0133 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
Other United States Dollar Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Currencies