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V-Lab

United States Dollar Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

5.09%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

5.20%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

5.58%

increased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of United States Dollar Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.02) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0036
29.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0618
74.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9245
1,293.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0171
2.32**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days