United States Dollar Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.09%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
5.20%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
5.58%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.02) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0036 | 29.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0618 | 74.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9245 | 1,293.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0171 | 2.32** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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