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V-Lab

United States Dollar Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

5.38%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

5.42%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

5.59%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of United States Dollar Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.51 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 daysδ = 1.51 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0023
4.15***
αARCH0.0433
10.36***
βGARCH0.9567
203.59***
γleverage0.0061
0.11
δpower1.5126
8.27***

0.994

Persistence

116d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0023
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0433
10.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9567
203.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0061
0.11
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5126
8.27***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days