Skip to main content
V-Lab

United States Dollar Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

5.49%

increased by 0.36%

1 Week

5.53%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

5.68%

increased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of United States Dollar Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.51 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0023
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
10.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9566
203.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0060
0.11
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5124
8.25***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days