V-Lab
United States Dollar Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
5.37%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
5.39%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
5.45%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7202 | 2.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0371 | 8.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9565 | 178.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0042 | -1.49 |
| γ2 | 0.0053 | 1.65* |
0.994
Persistence109d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7202 | 2.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0371 | 8.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9565 | 178.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0042 | -1.49 |
| γ2 | 0.0053 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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