V-Lab
United States Dollar Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.62%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
4.65%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
4.76%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6940 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0365 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9578 | 172.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0046 | -1.35 |
| γ2 | 0.0059 | 1.47 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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