V-Lab
Israeli Shekel Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
9.29%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
9.35%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
9.54%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1962 | 5.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0672 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8969 | 74.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0065 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | 0.0095 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | -0.0495 | -1.19 |
| γ4 | 0.1017 | 3.17*** |
| γ5 | -0.1486 | -5.17*** |
| γ6 | 0.1167 | 3.62*** |
| γ7 | -0.0348 | -1.09 |
| γ8 | 0.0064 | 0.23 |
| γ9 | -0.0015 | -0.06 |
| γ10 | -0.0223 | -1.33 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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