V-Lab
Israeli Shekel Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.35%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
8.49%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
8.92%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2228 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0671 | 8.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8974 | 75.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.32 |
| γ2 | 0.0028 | 0.05 |
| γ3 | -0.0458 | -1.12 |
| γ4 | 0.0994 | 3.13*** |
| γ5 | -0.1475 | -5.19*** |
| γ6 | 0.1169 | 3.65*** |
| γ7 | -0.0360 | -1.13 |
| γ8 | 0.0087 | 0.31 |
| γ9 | -0.0052 | -0.21 |
| γ10 | -0.0192 | -1.15 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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