V-Lab
Canadian Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
4.01%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.04%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.14%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 157 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8834 | 7.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0311 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9646 | 210.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
157 days
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