V-Lab
Canadian Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
4.43%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.45%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
4.53%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~156 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8811 | 7.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.0310 | 7.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9645 | 210.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -1.21 |
0.996
Persistence156d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8811 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0310 | 7.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9645 | 210.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
156 days
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