V-Lab
Canadian Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
3.83%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
3.86%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
3.97%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8844 | 7.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0310 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9646 | 210.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
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