V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.18%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
30.40%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
35.48%
increased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Jul 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2071 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1752 | 7.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7537 | 29.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.6151 | -2.55** |
| γ2 | 1.0961 | 3.18*** |
| γ3 | -0.9032 | -5.43*** |
| γ4 | 0.8557 | 4.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.7018 | -2.96*** |
| γ6 | 0.3572 | 1.78* |
| γ7 | -0.1317 | -0.83 |
| γ8 | -0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.1023 | 0.68 |
| γ10 | -0.0542 | -0.55 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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