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V-Lab

Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

28.18%

decreased by 1.47%

1 Week

30.40%

increased by 0.75%

1 Month

35.48%

increased by 5.83%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Jul 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2071
3.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1752
7.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7537
29.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.6151
-2.55**
γ21.0961
3.18***
γ3-0.9032
-5.43***
γ40.8557
4.25***
γ5-0.7018
-2.96***
γ60.3572
1.78*
γ7-0.1317
-0.83
γ8-0.0002
0.00
γ90.1023
0.68
γ10-0.0542
-0.55

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days