Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
27.07%
decreased by 1.43%
1 Week
29.35%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
34.38%
increased by 5.88%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2803 | 3.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1765 | 7.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7472 | 28.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5327 | -2.25** |
| γ2 | 0.9643 | 2.80*** |
| γ3 | -0.8205 | -5.00*** |
| γ4 | 0.8145 | 4.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.7195 | -3.35*** |
| γ6 | 0.4257 | 2.18** |
| γ7 | -0.2261 | -1.45 |
| γ8 | 0.1071 | 0.78 |
| γ9 | 0.0094 | 0.07 |
| γ10 | -0.0066 | -0.07 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2803 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1765 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7472 | 28.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5327 | -2.25** |
| γ2 | 0.9643 | 2.80*** |
| γ3 | -0.8205 | -5.00*** |
| γ4 | 0.8145 | 4.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.7195 | -3.35*** |
| γ6 | 0.4257 | 2.18** |
| γ7 | -0.2261 | -1.45 |
| γ8 | 0.1071 | 0.78 |
| γ9 | 0.0094 | 0.07 |
| γ10 | -0.0066 | -0.07 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
Other Bitcoin to US Dollar Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies