Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
41.44%
decreased by 4.66%
1 Week
41.34%
decreased by 4.76%
1 Month
41.11%
decreased by 4.99%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Nov 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2701 | 3.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.1755 | 7.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7488 | 28.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5292 | -2.21** |
| γ2 | 0.9544 | 2.73*** |
| γ3 | -0.8088 | -4.88*** |
| γ4 | 0.8087 | 4.69*** |
| γ5 | -0.7236 | -3.42*** |
| γ6 | 0.4373 | 2.23** |
| γ7 | -0.2409 | -1.53 |
| γ8 | 0.1226 | 0.90 |
| γ9 | -0.0004 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -0.0054 | -0.06 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2701 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1755 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7488 | 28.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5292 | -2.21** |
| γ2 | 0.9544 | 2.73*** |
| γ3 | -0.8088 | -4.88*** |
| γ4 | 0.8087 | 4.69*** |
| γ5 | -0.7236 | -3.42*** |
| γ6 | 0.4373 | 2.23** |
| γ7 | -0.2409 | -1.53 |
| γ8 | 0.1226 | 0.90 |
| γ9 | -0.0004 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -0.0054 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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