V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
26.93%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
29.06%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
33.95%
increased by 5.62%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 15, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2274 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1752 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7540 | 29.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5976 | -2.47** |
| γ2 | 1.0695 | 3.07*** |
| γ3 | -0.8901 | -5.35*** |
| γ4 | 0.8534 | 4.35*** |
| γ5 | -0.7113 | -3.05*** |
| γ6 | 0.3756 | 1.87* |
| γ7 | -0.1557 | -0.98 |
| γ8 | 0.0300 | 0.20 |
| γ9 | 0.0656 | 0.44 |
| γ10 | -0.0235 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
Other Bitcoin to US Dollar Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies