V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
32.78%
decreased by 2.63%
1 Week
34.23%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
37.61%
increased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 26, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2221 | 3.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1738 | 7.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7513 | 28.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5723 | -2.39** |
| γ2 | 1.0239 | 2.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.8541 | -5.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.8341 | 4.52*** |
| γ5 | -0.7202 | -3.24*** |
| γ6 | 0.4075 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | -0.1952 | -1.25 |
| γ8 | 0.0669 | 0.47 |
| γ9 | 0.0520 | 0.36 |
| γ10 | -0.0362 | -0.37 |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2221 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1738 | 7.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7513 | 28.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5723 | -2.39** |
| γ2 | 1.0239 | 2.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.8541 | -5.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.8341 | 4.52*** |
| γ5 | -0.7202 | -3.24*** |
| γ6 | 0.4075 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | -0.1952 | -1.25 |
| γ8 | 0.0669 | 0.47 |
| γ9 | 0.0520 | 0.36 |
| γ10 | -0.0362 | -0.37 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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