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Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

27.07%

decreased by 1.43%

1 Week

29.35%

increased by 0.85%

1 Month

34.38%

increased by 5.88%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/17/2024

to

10/17/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2803
3.46***
αARCH0.1765
7.95***
βGARCH0.7472
28.48***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5327
-2.25**
γ20.9643
2.80***
γ3-0.8205
-5.00***
γ40.8145
4.62***
γ5-0.7195
-3.35***
γ60.4257
2.18**
γ7-0.2261
-1.45
γ80.1071
0.78
γ90.0094
0.07
γ10-0.0066
-0.07

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2803
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1765
7.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7472
28.48***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5327
-2.25**
γ20.9643
2.80***
γ3-0.8205
-5.00***
γ40.8145
4.62***
γ5-0.7195
-3.35***
γ60.4257
2.18**
γ7-0.2261
-1.45
γ80.1071
0.78
γ90.0094
0.07
γ10-0.0066
-0.07

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days