V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
34.17%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
35.37%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
38.26%
increased by 3.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 06:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 5, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2579 | 3.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.1766 | 7.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7501 | 28.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5721 | -2.40** |
| γ2 | 1.0300 | 2.99*** |
| γ3 | -0.8656 | -5.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.8393 | 4.42*** |
| γ5 | -0.7132 | -3.14*** |
| γ6 | 0.3903 | 1.96** |
| γ7 | -0.1732 | -1.10 |
| γ8 | 0.0432 | 0.30 |
| γ9 | 0.0695 | 0.48 |
| γ10 | -0.0420 | -0.42 |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2579 | 3.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1766 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7501 | 28.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5721 | -2.40** |
| γ2 | 1.0300 | 2.99*** |
| γ3 | -0.8656 | -5.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.8393 | 4.42*** |
| γ5 | -0.7132 | -3.14*** |
| γ6 | 0.3903 | 1.96** |
| γ7 | -0.1732 | -1.10 |
| γ8 | 0.0432 | 0.30 |
| γ9 | 0.0695 | 0.48 |
| γ10 | -0.0420 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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