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V-Lab

Bitcoin to US Dollar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

26.93%

decreased by 1.40%

1 Week

29.06%

increased by 0.73%

1 Month

33.95%

increased by 5.62%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Aug 15, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2274
3.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1752
7.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7540
29.60***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5976
-2.47**
γ21.0695
3.07***
γ3-0.8901
-5.35***
γ40.8534
4.35***
γ5-0.7113
-3.05***
γ60.3756
1.87*
γ7-0.1557
-0.98
γ80.0300
0.20
γ90.0656
0.44
γ10-0.0235
-0.24

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days