Bitcoin to US Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
30.73%
increased by 0.58%
1 Week
32.00%
increased by 1.85%
1 Month
34.98%
increased by 4.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2439 | 3.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.1771 | 7.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7480 | 28.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5735 | -2.40** |
| γ2 | 1.0318 | 2.97*** |
| γ3 | -0.8692 | -5.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.8541 | 4.77*** |
| γ5 | -0.7481 | -3.44*** |
| γ6 | 0.4410 | 2.24** |
| γ7 | -0.2280 | -1.45 |
| γ8 | 0.0945 | 0.65 |
| γ9 | 0.0400 | 0.25 |
| γ10 | -0.0702 | -0.35 |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2439 | 3.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1771 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7480 | 28.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5735 | -2.40** |
| γ2 | 1.0318 | 2.97*** |
| γ3 | -0.8692 | -5.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.8541 | 4.77*** |
| γ5 | -0.7481 | -3.44*** |
| γ6 | 0.4410 | 2.24** |
| γ7 | -0.2280 | -1.45 |
| γ8 | 0.0945 | 0.65 |
| γ9 | 0.0400 | 0.25 |
| γ10 | -0.0702 | -0.35 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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