V-Lab
Bitcoin to US Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
31.81%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Week
33.06%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
36.02%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 26, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2307 | 3.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.1767 | 7.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7494 | 28.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5921 | -2.48** |
| γ2 | 1.0625 | 3.06*** |
| γ3 | -0.8901 | -5.38*** |
| γ4 | 0.8664 | 4.70*** |
| γ5 | -0.7476 | -3.36*** |
| γ6 | 0.4283 | 2.16** |
| γ7 | -0.2086 | -1.32 |
| γ8 | 0.0726 | 0.49 |
| γ9 | 0.0552 | 0.34 |
| γ10 | -0.0528 | -0.26 |
0.926
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2307 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1767 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7494 | 28.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5921 | -2.48** |
| γ2 | 1.0625 | 3.06*** |
| γ3 | -0.8901 | -5.38*** |
| γ4 | 0.8664 | 4.70*** |
| γ5 | -0.7476 | -3.36*** |
| γ6 | 0.4283 | 2.16** |
| γ7 | -0.2086 | -1.32 |
| γ8 | 0.0726 | 0.49 |
| γ9 | 0.0552 | 0.34 |
| γ10 | -0.0528 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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