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V-Lab

Bitcoin to US Dollar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

31.81%

decreased by 2.72%

1 Week

33.06%

decreased by 1.47%

1 Month

36.02%

increased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTC

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graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Sep 26, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2307
3.34***
αARCH0.1767
7.98***
βGARCH0.7494
28.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5921
-2.48**
γ21.0625
3.06***
γ3-0.8901
-5.38***
γ40.8664
4.70***
γ5-0.7476
-3.36***
γ60.4283
2.16**
γ7-0.2086
-1.32
γ80.0726
0.49
γ90.0552
0.34
γ10-0.0528
-0.26

0.926

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2307
3.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1767
7.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7494
28.79***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.5921
-2.48**
γ21.0625
3.06***
γ3-0.8901
-5.38***
γ40.8664
4.70***
γ5-0.7476
-3.36***
γ60.4283
2.16**
γ7-0.2086
-1.32
γ80.0726
0.49
γ90.0552
0.34
γ10-0.0528
-0.26

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days