Bitcoin to US Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
42.54%
decreased by 2.58%
1 Week
45.45%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
54.97%
increased by 9.85%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Jul 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4264 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1707 | 26.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8274 | 143.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0284 | 1.64 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7273 | 23.77*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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