Bitcoin to US Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
38.60%
1 Week
41.78%
1 Month
52.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4224 | 2.06** |
| αARCH | 0.1706 | 6.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8274 | 36.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.0299 | 0.44 |
| δpower | 1.7323 | 6.00*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4224 | 2.06** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1706 | 6.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8274 | 36.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0299 | 0.44 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7323 | 6.00*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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