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V-Lab

Bitcoin to US Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

42.54%

decreased by 2.58%

1 Week

45.45%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

54.97%

increased by 9.85%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Jul 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4264
8.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1707
26.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8274
143.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0284
1.64
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7273
23.77***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days