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Bitcoin to US Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

38.60%

increased by 1.07%

1 Week

41.78%

increased by 4.25%

1 Month

52.04%

increased by 14.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 06:01 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bitcoin to US Dollar APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2010 to Oct 3, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifeδ = 1.73 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4224
2.06**
αARCH0.1706
6.64***
βGARCH0.8274
36.21***
γleverage0.0299
0.44
δpower1.7323
6.00***

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4224
2.06**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1706
6.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8274
36.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0299
0.44
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7323
6.00***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days