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V-Lab

Ethereum to US Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

46.69%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

48.28%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

53.40%

increased by 5.83%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Ethereum to US Dollar APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4030
6.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
14.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9051
183.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0752
3.15***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8065
18.88***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days