Ethereum to US Dollar APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
46.69%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
48.28%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
53.40%
increased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2018 to Jul 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4030 | 6.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 14.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9051 | 183.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0752 | 3.15*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8065 | 18.88*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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