V-Lab
Moroccan Dirham APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
7.07%
1 Week
7.07%
1 Month
7.06%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 404 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.20 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.32** |
| αARCH | 0.0250 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9712 | 251.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0182 | -0.35 |
| δpower | 2.2016 | 9.00*** |
0.998
Persistence404d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0250 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9712 | 251.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0182 | -0.35 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2016 | 9.00*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
404 days
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