Moroccan Dirham APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.13%
1 Week
8.13%
1 Month
8.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 418 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.20 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.31** |
| αARCH | 0.0253 | 5.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9710 | 249.61*** |
| γleverage | -0.0229 | -0.44 |
| δpower | 2.2019 | 9.00*** |
0.998
Persistence418d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0253 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9710 | 249.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0229 | -0.44 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2019 | 9.00*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
418 days
Other Moroccan Dirham Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Currencies