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V-Lab

Moroccan Dirham APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

7.07%

increased by 0.74%

1 Week

7.07%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

7.06%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:38 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/04/2024

to

10/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Moroccan Dirham APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 404 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.20 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~404 daysδ = 2.20 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0003
2.32**
αARCH0.0250
5.47***
βGARCH0.9712
251.94***
γleverage-0.0182
-0.35
δpower2.2016
9.00***

0.998

Persistence

404d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
2.32**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0250
5.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9712
251.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0182
-0.35
δ

power

Transformation power

2.2016
9.00***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

404 days