Moroccan Dirham GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.05%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
8.06%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
8.08%
decreased by 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1819 trading days (~7.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1819 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.28** |
| αARCH | 0.0276 | 7.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9720 | 242.95*** |
1.000
Persistence1819d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0276 | 7.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9720 | 242.95*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1819 days
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