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Moroccan Dirham GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

7.86%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

7.87%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

7.90%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Moroccan Dirham GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1963 trading days (~7.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1963 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0003
2.27**
αARCH0.0278
7.19***
βGARCH0.9719
240.62***

1.000

Persistence

1963d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0003
2.27**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0278
7.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9719
240.62***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1963 days