Moroccan Dirham GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
7.86%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
7.87%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
7.90%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1963 trading days (~7.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1963 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.0278 | 7.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9719 | 240.62*** |
1.000
Persistence1963d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0278 | 7.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9719 | 240.62*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1963 days
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