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V-Lab

US Dollar to Thai Baht GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

5.39%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

5.41%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

5.52%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
12.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0844
49.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9156
594.57***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-