US Dollar to Thai Baht APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.31%
1 Week
4.35%
1 Month
4.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0006 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0839 | 13.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9161 | 114.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.0046 | 0.11 |
| δpower | 1.9999 | 9.43*** |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0839 | 13.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9161 | 114.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0046 | 0.11 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9999 | 9.43*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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