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US Dollar to Thai Baht GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

5.53%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

5.55%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

5.66%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 02:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
12.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0836
25.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9157
593.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0014
0.25

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-