V-Lab
US Dollar to Thai Baht GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.85%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
4.88%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
5.00%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 12.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0837 | 25.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 593.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0014 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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