US Dollar to Thai Baht GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.51%
1 Week
4.54%
1 Month
4.67%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0006 | 3.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0831 | 6.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9161 | 149.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.0015 | 0.07 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9161 | 149.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0015 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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