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V-Lab

US Dollar to Thai Baht GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.85%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

4.88%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

5.00%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Thai Baht GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0006
12.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0837
25.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9156
593.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0014
0.27

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days