V-Lab
US Dollar to Swiss Franc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
5.81%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
5.83%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.90%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~199 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 2.27** |
| αARCH | 0.0209 | 4.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9727 | 279.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0060 | 0.53 |
0.997
Persistence199d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0209 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9727 | 279.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0060 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
199 days
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