US Dollar to Swiss Franc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
5.98%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
6.00%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
6.07%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 198 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 29% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 8.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 16.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9724 | 1,113.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0062 | 2.12** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
198 days
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