Euro GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.49%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.51%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
4.61%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 286 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~286 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0006 | 3.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.0231 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9713 | 311.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.0063 | 0.63 |
0.998
Persistence286d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 3.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0231 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9713 | 311.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0063 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
286 days
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