V-Lab
US Dollar to British Pound GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
5.06%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
5.09%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
5.19%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0345 | 3.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9672 | 176.88*** |
| γleverage | -0.0167 | -1.05 |
0.993
Persistence103d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0345 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9672 | 176.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0167 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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