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US Dollar to British Pound GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

4.66%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.70%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.83%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to British Pound GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
3.06***
αARCH0.0344
3.37***
βGARCH0.9673
178.20***
γleverage-0.0164
-1.03

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
3.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0344
3.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9673
178.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0164
-1.03

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days