US Dollar to British Pound GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.66%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
4.70%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.83%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:54 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 3.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0344 | 3.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9673 | 178.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.0164 | -1.03 |
0.993
Persistence105d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9673 | 178.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0164 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
105 days
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