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V-Lab

US Dollar to British Pound GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

5.02%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

5.05%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

5.16%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to British Pound GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 95% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0013
12.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0342
13.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9674
705.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0167
-4.18***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

103 days