US Dollar to British Pound GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
5.66%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
5.68%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
5.74%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 01:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 94% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 12.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0342 | 13.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9674 | 703.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0166 | -4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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