US Dollar to British Pound GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
5.28%
1 Week
5.30%
1 Month
5.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.2496 | 0.87 |
| αscore | 0.0257 | 10.77*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9964 | 229.26*** |
| νDF | 3.8772 | 3.00*** |
0.996
Persistence190d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.2496 | 0.87 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0257 | 10.77*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 229.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8772 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
190 days
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