US Dollar to British Pound GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
5.20%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Week
8.29%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
11.89%
increased by 4.29%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7736 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4647 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8565 | 0.01 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4180 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.857
Half-life:
4 days
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