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US Dollar to British Pound GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

5.20%

decreased by 2.40%

1 Week

8.29%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

11.89%

increased by 4.29%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 01:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to British Pound GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7736
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4647
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8565
0.01
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4180
0.00

Persistence:

0.857

Half-life:

4 days