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US Dollar to British Pound GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

5.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

5.30%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

5.38%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to British Pound GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 190 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~190 daysv = 3.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.2496
0.87
αscore0.0257
10.77***
βpersistence0.9964
229.26***
νDF3.8772
3.00***

0.996

Persistence

190d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.2496
0.87
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0257
10.77***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9964
229.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8772
3.00***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

190 days