Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Indonesian Rupiah GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.22%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

14.33%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Month

14.77%

decreased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Indonesian Rupiah GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.08 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.08 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst7.1308
2.33**
αARCH0.0601
34.47***
βGARCH0.9990
2,454.55***
νDF2.0790
1,013.66***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.1308
2.33**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0601
34.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,454.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0790
1,013.66***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days