V-Lab
Indonesian Rupiah GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.22%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
14.33%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
14.77%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.08 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Unreliable tails: v = 2.08 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.1308 | 2.33** |
| αARCH | 0.0601 | 34.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 2,454.55*** |
| νDF | 2.0790 | 1,013.66*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.1308 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0601 | 34.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,454.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0790 | 1,013.66*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
Other Indonesian Rupiah Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Currencies