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US Dollar to Mexican Peso GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

51,303.53%

decreased by 4,777.29%

1 Week

51,252.24%

decreased by 4,828.58%

1 Month

51,047.99%

decreased by 5,032.83%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/18/2024

to

10/18/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Mexican Peso GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8545
5.87***
αARCH0.0648
47.96***
βGARCH0.9990
5,313.83***
νDF2.0000

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8545
5.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0648
47.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
5,313.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0000

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days