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Euro GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.61%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

4.63%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.72%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Euro GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 561 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~561 daysv = 3.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4290
2.19**
αARCH0.0216
19.66***
βGARCH0.9988
2,080.76***
νDF3.2034
26.91***

0.999

Persistence

561d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4290
2.19**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0216
19.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9988
2,080.76***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2034
26.91***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

561 days