V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.15%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
5.20%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
5.41%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 255 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5149 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0289 | 94.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9973 | 1,857.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7132 | 96.17*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
255 days
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