V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
8.29%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
8.31%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
8.39%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 240 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~240 daysv = 2.69 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5160 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0289 | 23.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 415.98*** |
| νDF | 2.6942 | 22.80*** |
0.997
Persistence240d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5160 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0289 | 23.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 415.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6942 | 22.80*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
240 days
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