V-Lab
US Dollar to Japanese Yen GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
7.64%
1 Week
7.67%
1 Month
7.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 244 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5172 | 1.20 |
| αARCH | 0.0288 | 23.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9972 | 430.56*** |
| νDF | 2.6928 | 23.45*** |
0.997
Persistence244d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5172 | 1.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0288 | 23.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 430.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6928 | 23.45*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
244 days
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