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US Dollar to Japanese Yen GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

4.33%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

4.39%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

4.63%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 03:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/08/2024

to

11/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Japanese Yen GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~209 daysv = 3.63 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.4246
1.06
αscore0.0385
18.61***
βpersistence0.9967
320.89***
νDF3.6265
7.72***

0.997

Persistence

209d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.4246
1.06
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0385
18.61***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9967
320.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6265
7.72***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

209 days