Dogecoin to US Dollar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
55.71%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
57.05%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
61.32%
increased by 5.09%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 06:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2022 to Oct 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 3.68 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 23.1821 | 0.91 |
| αARCH | 0.0886 | 5.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9714 | 26.72*** |
| νDF | 3.6838 | 2.09** |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 23.1821 | 0.91 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0886 | 5.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9714 | 26.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6838 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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