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V-Lab

Brazilian Real GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

15.23%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

15.32%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

15.67%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 01:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Brazilian Real GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.2998
12.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0396
106.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3059
580.09***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days