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V-Lab

Brazilian Real GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

12.55%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

12.66%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

13.09%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.31 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.2154
3.00***
αARCH0.0394
26.73***
βGARCH0.9990
3,307.95***
νDF2.3073
144.45***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.2154
3.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0394
26.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
3,307.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3073
144.45***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days