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V-Lab

Brazilian Real GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.87%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

13.97%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

14.35%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Brazilian Real GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.2354
12.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0395
107.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3080
575.70***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days