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V-Lab

South Korean Won GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

9.27%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

9.30%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

9.42%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South Korean Won GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.78 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4513
1.90*
αARCH0.0453
24.81***
βGARCH0.9990
2,064.05***
νDF2.7845
45.73***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4513
1.90*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0453
24.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,064.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7845
45.73***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days