South Korean Won GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
13.58%
increased by 0.48%
1 Week
13.59%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
13.65%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4622 | 7.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 99.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 8,256.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7770 | 183.81*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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