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V-Lab

South Korean Won MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

9.12%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

9.06%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

9.04%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 03:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South Korean Won MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 90% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 90% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.1145
8.82***
βGARCH0.8384
49.71***
γleverage-0.0542
-3.51***
λ₁tau intercept0.0001
2.46**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0305
7.48***
λ₃tau persistence0.9695
234.92***

0.926

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1145
8.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8384
49.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0542
-3.51***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0001
2.46**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0305
7.48***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9695
234.92***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days