V-Lab
South Korean Won MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
7.19%
1 Week
7.43%
1 Month
8.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 89% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1141 | 8.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8387 | 49.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.0538 | -3.48*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0001 | 2.46** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0305 | 7.47*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9695 | 234.92*** |
0.926
Persistence9d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1141 | 8.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8387 | 49.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0538 | -3.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 2.46** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0305 | 7.47*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9695 | 234.92*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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