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South Korean Won MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

8.28%

increased by 0.41%

1 Week

8.51%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

8.98%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South Korean Won MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 92% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 92% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.1149
8.85***
βGARCH0.8384
49.85***
γleverage-0.0550
-3.55***
λ₁tau intercept0.0001
2.46**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0303
7.50***
λ₃tau persistence0.9697
237.38***

0.926

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1149
8.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8384
49.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0550
-3.55***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0001
2.46**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0303
7.50***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9697
237.38***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days