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V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

0.31%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

0.34%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

0.44%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1390 trading days (~5.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2201
26.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7852
111.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0117
-0.79
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0249
0.39
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6892
0.82

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1390 days