V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
0.31%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
0.34%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
0.44%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1390 trading days (~5.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2201 | 26.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7852 | 111.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0117 | -0.79 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0249 | 0.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6892 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1390 days
Other Hong Kong Dollar Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Currencies