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V-Lab
V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

0.28%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.31%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

0.42%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1568 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1568 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow106
αARCH0.2206
8.24***
βGARCH0.7853
32.33***
γleverage-0.0128
-0.22
λ₁tau intercept0.0292
7.27***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.6754
4.51***

1.000

Persistence

1568d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2206
8.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7853
32.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0128
-0.22
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0292
7.27***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6754
4.51***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1568 days