V-Lab
Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
0.28%
1 Week
0.31%
1 Month
0.42%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1568 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.2206 | 8.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7853 | 32.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.0128 | -0.22 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0292 | 7.27*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6754 | 4.51*** |
1.000
Persistence1568d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2206 | 8.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7853 | 32.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0128 | -0.22 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0292 | 7.27*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6754 | 4.51*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1568 days
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