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V-Lab
V-Lab

Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

0.35%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

0.38%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

0.47%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hong Kong Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1617 trading days (~6.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1617 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow116
αARCH0.2194
8.17***
βGARCH0.7854
32.42***
γleverage-0.0103
-0.17
λ₁tau intercept0.0250
14.85***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.7308
6.33***

1.000

Persistence

1617d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

116
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2194
8.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7854
32.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0103
-0.17
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0250
14.85***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7308
6.33***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1617 days