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Chilean Peso MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

12.66%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

12.42%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Month

11.84%

decreased by 2.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chilean Peso MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 213% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 213% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.1399
6.01***
βGARCH0.7257
20.99***
γleverage-0.0951
-3.97***
λ₁tau intercept0.0312
3.38***
λ₂forecast adj.0.9359
10.96***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.818

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1399
6.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7257
20.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0951
-3.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0312
3.38***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9359
10.96***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.818

Half-life:

3 days