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V-Lab

South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

8.77%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

8.93%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

9.31%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South African Rand MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 308% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 308% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1721
5.79***
βGARCH0.7122
18.78***
γleverage-0.1299
-4.65***
λ₁tau intercept0.0013
2.29**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0563
6.71***
λ₃tau persistence0.9437
112.06***

0.819

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1721
5.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7122
18.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1299
-4.65***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
2.29**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0563
6.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9437
112.06***

Persistence:

0.819

Half-life:

3 days