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South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

7.03%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

7.32%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

7.65%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of South African Rand MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 306% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 306% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.1724
5.78***
βGARCH0.7093
18.52***
γleverage-0.1299
-4.63***
λ₁tau intercept0.0013
2.31**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0573
6.71***
λ₃tau persistence0.9427
110.04***

0.817

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1724
5.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7093
18.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1299
-4.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
2.31**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0573
6.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9427
110.04***

Persistence:

0.817

Half-life:

3 days