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V-Lab

South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

17.11%

decreased by 1.90%

1 Week

16.34%

decreased by 2.67%

1 Month

15.74%

decreased by 3.27%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of South African Rand MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 307% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1721
25.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7148
52.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1299
-16.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0012
2.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0546
5.36***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9454
92.89***

Persistence:

0.822

Half-life:

4 days