V-Lab
South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.11%
1 Week
16.34%
1 Month
15.74%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 307% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1721 | 25.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7148 | 52.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1299 | -16.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0012 | 2.80*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0546 | 5.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9454 | 92.89*** |
Persistence:
0.822
Half-life:
4 days
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