South African Rand MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, May 4th, 2026
1 Day
36.30%
decreased by 3.21%
1 Week
38.58%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
77.04%
increased by 37.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, May 1, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | ||
| 0.7076 | 7,076,170.00 | |
| 0.0424 | 423,830.00 | |
| 0.5000 | 5,000,000.00 | |
| 0.1527 | 27.15 | |
| 0.6652 | 31.94 | |
| 0.1295 | 4.20 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to May 1, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to May 1, 2026
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