United States Dollar Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
5.38%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
5.34%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
5.42%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.0237 | 3.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9048 | 47.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0109 | 1.26 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0039 | 1.83* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1230 | 2.51** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8610 | 15.29*** |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0237 | 3.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9048 | 47.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0109 | 1.26 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0039 | 1.83* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1230 | 2.51** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8610 | 15.29*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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