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V-Lab

United States Dollar Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

5.52%

increased by 0.34%

1 Week

5.53%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

5.65%

increased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of United States Dollar Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow51
αARCH0.0240
3.27***
βGARCH0.9044
47.44***
γleverage0.0107
1.24
λ₁tau intercept0.0040
1.83*
λ₂forecast adj.0.1229
2.51**
λ₃tau persistence0.8611
15.28***

0.934

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0240
3.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9044
47.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0107
1.24
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0040
1.83*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1229
2.51**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8611
15.28***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days