V-Lab
Australian Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.60%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
5.88%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
6.25%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 01:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0091 | 0.71 |
| βGARCH | 0.1132 | 1.00 |
| γleverage | 0.1118 | 4.56*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0604 | 4.07*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8191 | 5.60*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.178
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0091 | 0.71 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1132 | 1.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1118 | 4.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0604 | 4.07*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8191 | 5.60*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.178
Half-life:
0 days
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