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V-Lab
V-Lab

Australian Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

5.90%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

6.19%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

6.36%

increased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/04/2024

to

10/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Australian Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0093
0.71
βGARCH0.1093
0.96
γleverage0.1110
4.54***
λ₁tau intercept0.0601
4.08***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8200
5.62***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.174

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0093
0.71
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1093
0.96
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1110
4.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0601
4.08***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8200
5.62***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.174

Half-life:

0 days