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V-Lab
V-Lab

Australian Dollar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

5.88%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

6.21%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

6.33%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 01:55 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/25/2024

to

10/25/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Australian Dollar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0096
0.74
βGARCH0.1073
0.95
γleverage0.1109
4.54***
λ₁tau intercept0.0597
4.09***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8210
5.65***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.172

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0096
0.74
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1073
0.95
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1109
4.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0597
4.09***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8210
5.65***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.172

Half-life:

0 days