V-Lab
Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
8.22%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
8.04%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
7.81%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 393% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 393% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0183 | 1.95* |
| βGARCH | 0.7995 | 23.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.0719 | 4.39*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0013 | 3.17*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0278 | 4.74*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9673 | 143.04*** |
0.854
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0183 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7995 | 23.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0719 | 4.39*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0013 | 3.17*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0278 | 4.74*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9673 | 143.04*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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