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V-Lab

Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

6.55%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

6.67%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

6.86%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 03:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/04/2024

to

10/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 394% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 394% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0184
1.94*
βGARCH0.7971
23.47***
γleverage0.0724
4.40***
λ₁tau intercept0.0013
3.18***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0278
4.77***
λ₃tau persistence0.9673
144.25***

0.852

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0184
1.94*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7971
23.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0724
4.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
3.18***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0278
4.77***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9673
144.25***

Persistence:

0.852

Half-life:

4 days