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V-Lab

Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

5.49%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

5.57%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

5.69%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 389% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 389% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0185
1.98**
βGARCH0.8013
24.29***
γleverage0.0720
4.42***
λ₁tau intercept0.0013
3.11***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0271
4.72***
λ₃tau persistence0.9682
146.79***

0.856

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0185
1.98**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8013
24.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0720
4.42***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
3.11***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0271
4.72***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9682
146.79***

Persistence:

0.856

Half-life:

4 days