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V-Lab

Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

8.22%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

8.04%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

7.81%

decreased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 393% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 393% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0183
1.95*
βGARCH0.7995
23.66***
γleverage0.0719
4.39***
λ₁tau intercept0.0013
3.17***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0278
4.74***
λ₃tau persistence0.9673
143.04***

0.854

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0183
1.95*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7995
23.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0719
4.39***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0013
3.17***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0278
4.74***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9673
143.04***

Persistence:

0.854

Half-life:

4 days