Japanese Yen MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.49%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
5.57%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
5.69%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 389% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 389% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0185 | 1.98** |
| βGARCH | 0.8013 | 24.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0720 | 4.42*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0013 | 3.11*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0271 | 4.72*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9682 | 146.79*** |
0.856
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 1.98** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8013 | 24.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0720 | 4.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0013 | 3.11*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0271 | 4.72*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9682 | 146.79*** |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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